Labs
Our AI-driven analysis of Bitcoin’s cycles: the correlations between today’s market and every earlier year, cycle and bear market, with the measures and the macro data behind them.
$73,664 price now -40.9% from the cycle's closing high 46% through cycle 4 517 days to the halving 402 days since the top Details
Windrose
Bitcoin's whole price history wound onto its four-year clock. One turn is four calendar years from the first block; the distance from the centre is the price, and every ring out is ten times the one inside it. Cycles that keep the same rhythm draw the same shape, one turn outside the last.
- Cycle 4 · 2025–2028, the turn being drawn now
- Earlier cycles, the oldest the faintest
- The study's projected line to the next halving, with its likely range. A model, not a forecast.
- A cycle's top
- A cycle's low
- A halving
- The dial runs clockwise from the top: each quarter is a year of the four-year block (2009, 2013, 2017, 2021, 2025)
- Now
- $73,664 46% round, year 2 of four
- Tops since 2013 fell in
- year 1 of the four 4 cycles
- Lows since 2013 fell in
- year 2 to year 3 4 cycles
- Projected low
- $71.9k Jan 2027range $63.3k to $97.9k
- Projected at the next halving
- $101k about Apr 2028range $65.7k to $176k
Daily closes since 18 July 2010, from the cycle study. A turn is four calendar years from 3 January 2009, so the halvings are free to drift round the dial. Point at the spiral for a day's date and price, or at a mark for what it is. The projected line is the study's own and moves as the data does; it is not advice and not a forecast.