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Our AI-driven analysis of Bitcoin’s cycles: the correlations between today’s market and every earlier year, cycle and bear market, with the measures and the macro data behind them.

Updated 8m ago

Cycle Windrose Correlation Valuation Floors Dollar Halving overlay Bear markets 12-year outlook

$73,664 price now -40.9% from the cycle's closing high 46% through cycle 4 517 days to the halving 402 days since the top Details

Bear markets: this fall against the earlier ones

A bear market is a long, deep fall from a high. Here every one starts on the day of its top and is shown as a share of the top’s price, so you can see how far each went, how long it took, and where this one stands beside them.

day 402 since the top

This fall (top on 6 Oct 2025) 2021 fall2017 fall2013 fall2011 fall the low of each fall today, and where each fall stood on the same day year ends of this fall

How to read it: the top line is the price at the top; −50% means half of it was gone. Each earlier fall is drawn to the end of the calendar year of its low, so the lines stop at different days. This fall’s line stops at today.

Each fall, side by side

Where each stood 402 days after its top, how deep it went, and how fast.

Fall	Price at the top	Under the top on day 402	Its low	Days to −25%	Days to −50%	From the low to the year’s end
This falltop on 6 Oct 2025	$124,728	−41%$73,664	−52%day 268, so far	42	242	not yet known
2021 falltop on 10 Nov 2021	$67,774	−75%$16,708	−76%day 377	24	180	+3%in 39 days
2017 falltop on 17 Dec 2017	$18,681	−81%$3,580	−83%day 363	5	46	+19%in 16 days
2013 falltop on 30 Nov 2013	$1,110	−75%$276.80	−84%day 410	6	86	+139%in 351 days
2011 falltop on 8 Jun 2011	$29.60	−75%$7.44	−93%day 163	3	3	+130%in 43 days

Each fall has been shallower than the one before. Whether this one has already seen its low cannot be known from the earlier ones: they are 4 examples. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Not advice and not a forecast.