Labs
Our AI-driven analysis of Bitcoin’s cycles: the correlations between today’s market and every earlier year, cycle and bear market, with the measures and the macro data behind them.
$73,664 price now -40.9% from the cycle's closing high 46% through cycle 4 517 days to the halving 402 days since the top Details
Which part of Bitcoin's past does 2026 look like?
This page draws Bitcoin's price this year on top of its own past and scores how alike the lines are. 100% means the same line, 0% means nothing in common, and a minus score means the price moved the opposite way.
- 1. The closest period anywhere in Bitcoin's history
- May 2022 to Mar 2023 68% shape match with 2026 so far: alike
- 2. The closest year, same dates (1 January to today)
- 2018 38% shape match, 60% timing match: slightly alike
- 3. The closest four-year cycle, from its start
- the 2020 cycle 73% shape match, 8% timing match: alike
- 4. The closest year at the same point of its cycle
- Aug 2014 to Jun 2015 33% shape match, in the 2012 cycle: slightly alike
How to read the scores
- Shape match: lay the two price lines on top of each other. The more they look like the same line, the higher the score.
- Timing match: did the price go up and down in the same weeks? This is the stricter score: two lines can end up in the same place (a high shape match) without rising and falling at the same times (a low timing match).
- What it is for: a description of the past, not a forecast. Periods that looked alike went on to end very differently.
When did Bitcoin last move like this?
Take Bitcoin's most recent days, then search its whole history since 2010 for the periods that look most like them, whatever the date. The best matches are drawn on top of today's line, and the dashed part shows what each one did afterwards.
Closest match: 10 Jan to 10 Mar 2025, a 88% shape match.
Closest match: 8 Mar to 5 Jun 2023, a 81% shape match.
Closest match: 18 Apr to 15 Aug 2014, a 92% shape match.
Closest match: 27 Jul 2015 to 22 Jan 2016, a 88% shape match.
Closest match: 5 Apr 2022 to 30 Mar 2023, a 74% shape match.
Closest match: 18 May 2022 to 29 Mar 2023, a 68% shape match.
| Rank | The matching period | Shape match | In words | Price in the period | Then the next 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 Jan to 10 Mar 2025 | 88% | very alike | −17% | +5.1% |
| 2 | 29 Dec 2013 to 26 Feb 2014 | 88% | very alike | −17% | −17% |
| 3 | 10 May to 8 Jul 2024 | 87% | very alike | −6.8% | −3.1% |
| 4 | 2 Nov to 31 Dec 2014 | 84% | very alike | −3.1% | −27% |
| 5 | 23 Jun to 21 Aug 2014 | 84% | very alike | −11% | −22% |
| – | 14 Sep to 12 Nov 2026 today's period | – | the one being compared | −5.8% | not yet known |
How much weight to give the score. Every 60-day period in Bitcoin's history was checked: 5,813 of them. 70 of those (1.2%) score 80% or more, so with that many to pick from the best one will always look close. The shorter the period, the easier a high score is to find. A match means the shape was alike. It does not mean the same thing happens next: the best matches went on to do very different things. Periods that overlap a better match are not listed. Not advice and not a forecast.
| Rank | The matching period | Shape match | In words | Price in the period | Then the next 45 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 Mar to 5 Jun 2023 | 81% | very alike | +16% | +16% |
| 2 | 24 Apr to 22 Jul 2020 | 78% | alike | +25% | +6.1% |
| 3 | 16 May to 13 Aug 2014 | 76% | alike | +21% | −27% |
| 4 | 31 Jan to 30 Apr 2021 | 75% | alike | +76% | −30% |
| 5 | 3 Jun to 31 Aug 2015 | 74% | alike | +2.1% | +9.9% |
| – | 15 Aug to 12 Nov 2026 today's period | – | the one being compared | +17% | not yet known |
How much weight to give the score. Every 90-day period in Bitcoin's history was checked: 5,738 of them. 2 of those (0.0%) score 80% or more, so with that many to pick from the best one will always look close. The shorter the period, the easier a high score is to find. A match means the shape was alike. It does not mean the same thing happens next: the best matches went on to do very different things. Periods that overlap a better match are not listed. Not advice and not a forecast.
| Rank | The matching period | Shape match | In words | Price in the period | Then the next 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 Apr to 15 Aug 2014 | 92% | very alike | +2.2% | −17% |
| 2 | 3 Jan to 2 May 2021 | 92% | very alike | +74% | −42% |
| 3 | 24 Mar to 21 Jul 2020 | 92% | very alike | +39% | +18% |
| 4 | 27 Mar to 24 Jul 2011 | 91% | very alike | +1,605% | −61% |
| 5 | 25 Apr to 22 Aug 2016 | 91% | very alike | +26% | +8.1% |
| – | 16 Jul to 12 Nov 2026 today's period | – | the one being compared | +15% | not yet known |
How much weight to give the score. Every 120-day period in Bitcoin's history was checked: 5,663 of them. 557 of those (9.8%) score 80% or more, so with that many to pick from the best one will always look close. The shorter the period, the easier a high score is to find. A match means the shape was alike. It does not mean the same thing happens next: the best matches went on to do very different things. Periods that overlap a better match are not listed. Not advice and not a forecast.
| Rank | The matching period | Shape match | In words | Price in the period | Then the next 90 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27 Jul 2015 to 22 Jan 2016 | 88% | very alike | +30% | +17% |
| 2 | 30 Jul 2023 to 25 Jan 2024 | 87% | very alike | +36% | +61% |
| 3 | 19 Jul 2024 to 14 Jan 2025 | 84% | very alike | +44% | −12% |
| 4 | 27 Sep 2011 to 24 Mar 2012 | 84% | very alike | −4.1% | +40% |
| 5 | 1 Feb to 30 Jul 2011 | 84% | very alike | +1,833% | −76% |
| – | 17 May to 12 Nov 2026 today's period | – | the one being compared | −4.8% | not yet known |
How much weight to give the score. Every 180-day period in Bitcoin's history was checked: 5,513 of them. 149 of those (2.7%) score 80% or more, so with that many to pick from the best one will always look close. The shorter the period, the easier a high score is to find. A match means the shape was alike. It does not mean the same thing happens next: the best matches went on to do very different things. Periods that overlap a better match are not listed. Not advice and not a forecast.
| Rank | The matching period | Shape match | In words | Price in the period | Then the next 180 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 Apr 2022 to 30 Mar 2023 | 74% | alike | −39% | −6.2% |
| 2 | 29 Sep 2014 to 23 Sep 2015 | 69% | alike | −39% | +78% |
| 3 | 5 Aug 2019 to 29 Jul 2020 | 60% | alike | −4.6% | +200% |
| 4 | 1 Jul 2018 to 25 Jun 2019 | 56% | somewhat alike | +80% | −35% |
| 5 | 15 Jul 2011 to 8 Jul 2012 | 56% | somewhat alike | −51% | +95% |
| – | 18 Nov 2025 to 12 Nov 2026 today's period | – | the one being compared | −21% | not yet known |
How much weight to give the score. Every 360-day period in Bitcoin's history was checked: 5,063 of them. None of them scores 80% or more: over a period this long, nothing in Bitcoin's history is a close copy. A match means the shape was alike. It does not mean the same thing happens next: the best matches went on to do very different things. Periods that overlap a better match are not listed. Not advice and not a forecast.
| Rank | The matching period | Shape match | In words | Price in the period | Then the next 158 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 May 2022 to 29 Mar 2023 | 68% | alike | −2.7% | −8.5% |
| 2 | 11 Nov 2014 to 22 Sep 2015 | 58% | somewhat alike | −37% | +87% |
| 3 | 10 Oct 2019 to 20 Aug 2020 | 55% | somewhat alike | +38% | +184% |
| 4 | 8 Mar 2024 to 17 Jan 2025 | 51% | somewhat alike | +52% | +1.9% |
| 5 | 21 Aug 2018 to 2 Jul 2019 | 50% | somewhat alike | +67% | −30% |
| – | 1 Jan to 12 Nov 2026 today's period | – | the one being compared | −17% | not yet known |
How much weight to give the score. Every 316-day period in Bitcoin's history was checked: 5,173 of them. None of them scores 80% or more: over a period this long, nothing in Bitcoin's history is a close copy. A match means the shape was alike. It does not mean the same thing happens next: the best matches went on to do very different things. Periods that overlap a better match are not listed. Not advice and not a forecast.
Same dates: 2026 against every earlier year
Every year's line starts from the same point on 1 January, so you can see which years rose and fell like this one. The three closest years are named; the others are faint.
| Year | Shape match | Timing match | In words | Price by 12 Nov | Then to year end | Full year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 38% | 60% | slightly alike | −52% | −41% | −72% |
| 2012 | 21% | 2% | slightly alike | +120% | +24% | +174% |
| 2021 | 17% | 0% | not alike | +119% | −27% | +60% |
| 2022 | 9% | −25% | not alike | −65% | −2% | −65% |
| 2020 | 4% | −2% | not alike | +119% | +83% | +300% |
| 2025 | 2% | 13% | not alike | +8% | −14% | −7% |
| 2017 | −3% | −9% | not alike | +520% | +124% | +1,286% |
| 2015 | −14% | −3% | not alike | +3% | +33% | +37% |
| 2014 | −15% | −6% | not alike | −44% | −24% | −58% |
| 2013 | −19% | 0% | not alike | +2,579% | +109% | +5,506% |
| 2016 | −24% | −22% | moved the opposite way | +66% | +34% | +123% |
| 2019 | −29% | −1% | moved the opposite way | +139% | −18% | +95% |
| 2024 | −37% | 13% | moved the opposite way | +106% | +5% | +117% |
| 2023 | −37% | −12% | moved the opposite way | +124% | +15% | +157% |
| 2011 | −48% | −29% | moved the opposite way | +910% | +56% | +1,473% |
The scores compare 1 January to 12 Nov 2026 this year with the same dates of each earlier year. "Then to year end" is what that earlier year did afterwards: it is shown for interest, not as a prediction.
Cycle against cycle: this four-year cycle and the earlier ones
About every four years the amount of new Bitcoin created is cut in half. That day is called the halving, and Bitcoin's price has tended to move in a cycle from one halving to the next. Here every cycle's line starts on its own halving day. This cycle began on 20 Apr 2024.
| Cycle | Shape match | Timing match | In words | Price by day 936 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 cycle began 11 May 2020 | 73% | 8% | alike | +94% |
| 2012 cycle began 28 Nov 2012 | 56% | 9% | somewhat alike | +1,916% |
| 2016 cycle began 9 Jul 2016 | 41% | −2% | somewhat alike | +430% |
| This cycle began 20 Apr 2024 | – | – | the one being compared | +14% |
The same point of each earlier cycle
2026 began 621 days after this cycle's halving. This table takes the period that began the same number of days after each earlier halving and scores it against 2026 so far. Put simply: which year was each earlier cycle in when it was where we are now, and did it look like this one?
| Cycle | The matching period | Shape match | Timing match | In words | Price in the period | Then the next 90 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 cycle | 11 Aug 2014 to 22 Jun 2015 | 33% | 5% | slightly alike | −58% | −7% |
| 2020 cycle | 22 Jan 2022 to 3 Dec 2022 | 8% | 5% | not alike | −51% | +31% |
| 2016 cycle | 22 Mar 2018 to 31 Jan 2019 | −30% | −22% | moved the opposite way | −61% | +56% |
| This cycle | 1 Jan 2026 to 12 Nov 2026 | – | – | the one being compared | −17% | not yet known |
There are only 3 earlier cycles to compare with, so read these scores as a description, not as proof of anything. How the scores are worked out: from Bitcoin's daily closing prices since 18 Jul 2010. Each line is measured as its change from its own first day. The shape match is the statistical correlation between two such lines, and the timing match is the same measure on their week-to-week changes. Not advice and not a forecast.