Labs
Our AI-driven analysis of Bitcoin’s cycles: the correlations between today’s market and every earlier year, cycle and bear market, with the measures and the macro data behind them.
$73,664 price now -40.9% from the cycle's closing high 46% through cycle 4 517 days to the halving 402 days since the top Details
Has Bitcoin found its floor?
Three lines a falling price has met in past bear markets: what today’s holders paid on average, what the electricity to mine one coin costs, and the average price of the last 200 weeks. Where the price stands against each, and what every bear market did around them.
- Bitcoin, last daily close
- $73,915 11 Nov 2026
- What holders paid on average
- $53,928 the price is 37% above it
- The 200-week average
- $67,786 the price is 9% above it
- Electricity to mine one coin (estimate)
- $54,244 the price is 36% above it
What the three lines are
- What holders paid on average. Every coin is counted at the price it last changed hands at, and the average is taken. When the price is under this line the average holder is at a loss, and anyone selling there is mostly selling at a loss. That is the nearest thing to "sellers running out" that can be measured for the whole market.
- Electricity to mine one coin. The power the whole network uses in a day, priced at 5 cents a kilowatt-hour, divided by the new coins released that day. It is an estimate: it assumes how efficient the average mining machine is, and it leaves out the machines, the sites and the staff, so a miner’s full cost is higher. It doubles at each halving, when the new coins are cut in half.
- The 200-week average. The average price of almost four years. The price has rarely stayed under it.
The price and its three floors
Since 2012, with the low of each bear market marked, on the same daily closes as the Cycle and Bear markets views. The electricity estimate starts in 2016, when the machines in use became steady enough to estimate.
How low did each bear market go?
The daily close at each bear market’s top and low (the same days and prices as the Cycle and Bear markets views), and the close at the low against each line on that day.
| Bear market | From its top | To its low | Fall | Against what holders paid | Against the 200-week average | Against the electricity estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | $29.608 Jun 2011 | $2.0518 Nov 2011 | −93% | 58% under | no figure | no figure |
| 2014 to 2015 | $1,11030 Nov 2013 | $18114 Jan 2015 | −84% | 44% under | 6% under | no figure |
| 2018 | $18,68117 Dec 2017 | $3,15315 Dec 2018 | −83% | 31% under | 0% under | 10% above |
| March 2020 | $10,36614 Feb 2020 | $4,95316 Mar 2020 | −52% | 10% under | 10% under | 7% under |
| 2022 | $67,77410 Nov 2021 | $16,12422 Nov 2022 | −76% | 20% under | 33% under | 18% above |
| 2025 to 2026low so far | $124,7286 Oct 2025 | $59,9631 Jul 2026 | −52% | 13% above | 4% under | 14% above |
What this shows
- What holders paid: 4 of the 4 full bear markets ended with the price under it, by 20% to 58%. The fall from October 2025 has, at its low so far, stopped 13% above it.
- Electricity: the lows since 2018 came within about 18% of the estimate, on either side. Miners who cannot cover their power switch off, so the price has not stayed far under it.
- Each fall has been shallower than the one before. That may be why the latest low did not reach what holders paid, or it may mean the fall is not finished. This table cannot tell those apart.
Every time the price fell under what holders paid
From the first daily close under the line to the last, and what the price did afterwards.
| First day under | Price that day | Days under | Fell a further | The low came | 12 months later | 24 months later |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Sep 2011 | $5.03 | 152 | −59% | 70 days18 Nov 2011 | +118% | +2,256% |
| 4 Oct 2014 | $328 | 304 | −45% | 102 days14 Jan 2015 | −27% | +86% |
| 19 Nov 2018 | $4,945 | 134 | −36% | 26 days15 Dec 2018 | +64% | +260% |
| 13 Jun 2022 | $23,144 | 179 | −30% | 162 days22 Nov 2022 | +12% | +192% |
What this shows
- Going under the line was not the bottom. Each time, the price fell a good deal further and stayed under for months.
- Two years after the first day under, the price was higher every time. One year after, it was higher three times in four.
- It is 4 examples. Enough to say this is where past bear markets ended, not enough to say the next one must.
Prices are the daily closes the Cycle and Bear markets views use. Network figures (the ratio of market value to what holders paid, the hash rate and the daily release of coins): source Coin Metrics, stored by our engine and read from there. What holders paid is each day’s close divided by that day’s ratio. The electricity estimate is our own: hash rate × the energy an average machine needs × 5 cents a kilowatt-hour ÷ the coins released, on 30-day averages, with the machine efficiency assumed (about 120 joules per terahash in 2018 falling to about 21 in 2026). A different power price moves the line in proportion. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Not advice and not a forecast.