Labs
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, derived from its whole price history.
Bitcoin
$84,137
-32.5% from the cycle top
Cycle position
43%
Through cycle 4
Next halving
565 days
2028-04-13, reward 1.5625
Since the top
355 days
Top 2025-10-06 at $126,272
Bitcoin, all of it
Every daily close since 2010-07-18, the spine the cycle model is built on.
0.000033.3k66.6k99.9k133.2k
Jul 2010Aug 2018Sep 2026
Sampled evenly from 5,915 daily closes. The halving overlay, the bear overlay and the twelve year outlook are the other tabs above.
Cycle milestones
Tops, lows and halvings the model has detected.
| Date | Event | Price | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Cycle 4 low provisional | $59,963 | 268 days after the top |
| 2025-10-06 | Cycle 4 top provisional | $124,728 | unreclaimed for 355 days |
| 2024-04-20 | 4th halving | $64,895 | Block 840,000 · 6.25 → 3.125 BTC |
| 2024-03-14 | Pre-halving record high | $69,339 | set 37 days before the 4th halving |
| 2022-11-22 | Cycle 3 low | $16,124 | 377 days after the top |
| 2021-11-10 | Cycle 3 top | $67,774 | reclaimed 2024-03-05 |
| 2020-05-11 | 3rd halving | $8,759 | Block 630,000 · 12.5 → 6.25 BTC |
| 2018-12-15 | Cycle 2 low | $3,153 | 363 days after the top |
| 2017-12-17 | Cycle 2 top | $18,681 | reclaimed 2020-11-30 |
| 2016-07-09 | 2nd halving | $641.96 | Block 420,000 · 25 → 12.5 BTC |
| 2015-01-14 | Cycle 1 low | $180.79 | 410 days after the top |
| 2013-11-30 | Cycle 1 top | $1,110 | reclaimed 2017-02-23 |
Halvings
Where the supply schedule has stepped down.
| Date | Block | Reward |
|---|---|---|
| 2028-04-13 due | 1,050,000 | 1.5625 |
| 2024-04-20 | 840,000 | 3.125 |
| 2020-05-11 | 630,000 | 6.25 |
| 2016-07-09 | 420,000 | 12.5 |
| 2012-11-28 | 210,000 | 25 |
81,329 blocks to go from tip 968,671.