Labs
Our AI-driven analysis of Bitcoin’s cycles: the correlations between today’s market and every earlier year, cycle and bear market, with the measures and the macro data behind them.
-40.9% from the cycle's closing high
Through cycle 4
12 Apr 2028
closing high $124,728, 6 Oct 2025
Bitcoin, all of it
Every daily close since 18 Jul 2010, the record the cycle study is built on.
Sampled evenly from 5,962 daily closes. The halving overlay, the bear overlay and the twelve year outlook are the other tabs above.
Cycle milestones
Tops, lows and halvings the cycle study has found. Prices are daily closes (UTC).
| Date | Event | Close | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Cycle 4 low provisional | $59,963 | 268 days after the topintraday low $57,735 |
| 6 Oct 2025 | Cycle 4 top provisional | $124,728 | not regained for 402 daysintraday high $126,272 |
| 20 Apr 2024 | 4th halving | $64,895 | Block 840,000new coins per block 6.25 to 3.125 BTC |
| 14 Mar 2024 | Pre-halving record high | $69,339 | set 37 days before the 4th halvingintraday high $73,794 |
| 22 Nov 2022 | Cycle 3 low | $16,124 | 377 days after the topintraday low $15,479 |
| 10 Nov 2021 | Cycle 3 top | $67,774 | regained 5 Mar 2024intraday high $69,000 |
| 11 May 2020 | 3rd halving | $8,759 | Block 630,000new coins per block 12.5 to 6.25 BTC |
| 15 Dec 2018 | Cycle 2 low | $3,153 | 363 days after the topintraday low $3,122 |
| 17 Dec 2017 | Cycle 2 top | $18,681 | regained 30 Nov 2020intraday high $19,666 |
| 9 Jul 2016 | 2nd halving | $641.96 | Block 420,000new coins per block 25 to 12.5 BTC |
| 14 Jan 2015 | Cycle 1 low | $180.79 | 410 days after the topintraday low $152.40 |
| 30 Nov 2013 | Cycle 1 top | $1,110 | regained 23 Feb 2017intraday high $1,163 |
Halvings
Where the supply schedule has stepped down.
| Date | Block | New coins per block |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2028 due | 1,050,000 | 1.5625 |
| 20 Apr 2024 | 840,000 | 3.125 |
| 11 May 2020 | 630,000 | 6.25 |
| 9 Jul 2016 | 420,000 | 12.5 |
| 28 Nov 2012 | 210,000 | 25 |
74,477 blocks to go from the latest block, 975,523.