Labs
Our AI-driven analysis of Bitcoin’s cycles: the correlations between today’s market and every earlier year, cycle and bear market, with the measures and the macro data behind them.
$73,664 price now -40.9% from the cycle's closing high 46% through cycle 4 517 days to the halving 402 days since the top Details
Halving overlay: this cycle against the earlier ones
About every four years the amount of new Bitcoin created is cut in half: the halving. Here every cycle starts on its own halving day and is shown as a multiple of the price on that day, so cycles at very different prices can be laid over each other.
Where each cycle stood on day 936
The same number of days after its own halving, and what each earlier cycle did from there.
| Cycle | Day 936 fell on | Against its halving price | Price that day | One year later | Its top | Its low after the top |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This cyclebegan 20 Apr 2024 | 12 Nov 2026 | 1.14× | $73,664 | not yet known | 1.92× so farday 534 | 0.92× so farday 802 |
| 2020 cyclebegan 11 May 2020 | 3 Dec 2022 | 1.94× | $16,972 | +146% | 7.74×day 548 | 1.84×day 925 |
| 2016 cyclebegan 9 Jul 2016 | 31 Jan 2019 | 5.30× | $3,400 | +176% | 29.1×day 526 | 4.91×day 889 |
| 2012 cyclebegan 28 Nov 2012 | 22 Jun 2015 | 20.2× | $245.95 | +153% | 91.0×day 367 | 14.8×day 777 |
Each cycle has risen less from its halving than the one before, so the earlier lines sit higher on the chart: compare the shapes and the timing, not the heights. Three earlier cycles are three examples. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Not advice and not a forecast.