Labs
Our AI-driven analysis of Bitcoin’s cycles: the correlations between today’s market and every earlier year, cycle and bear market, with the measures and the macro data behind them.
$73,548 price now -41.0% from the cycle's closing high 46% through cycle 4 517 days to the halving 402 days since the top Details
Is Bitcoin cheap or dear right now?
Seven ways of setting today’s price against something slow: a long average, a growth line, what miners earn, what holders paid. Each reading is placed in its own history, from the cheapest it has been to the dearest, with what the following 12 months did after readings like today’s.
- All seven together, Bitcoin is
- on the cheap side dearer than 32% of its own history, cheaper than 68%
- Price now
- $73,548 12 Nov 2026
- For comparison, any 12 months
- +75% the middle result of every 12-month period since 2015, good and bad together
How to read this
- The scale runs from the cheapest each measure has ever been to the dearest. The marker is today. The place is worked out from that measure’s past only, as it stood on each day, so hindsight does not flatter it.
- "After readings like this" takes the tenth of days since 2015 whose reading was closest to today’s and shows what the next 12 months did. Bitcoin has risen a great deal over those years, which lifts every middle result: compare each with the figure for any 12 months above.
- What it is for: a sense of where the price stands in the long run. It says nothing useful about next week or next month, and it rests on three or four market cycles. Not advice and not a forecast.
Price against its 2-year average, over time
The average price over the last two years.
How well has each measure told the year ahead?
Each measure against what Bitcoin did over the following 12 months, in three separate stretches of its history, and what followed its extremes.
| Measure | Link, up to 2017 | 2018 to 2021 | 2022 on | After its cheapest tenth | After its dearest tenth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price against its 200-week average | weak | strong | strong | +122%worst +12%, 4 periods | −22%best +7%, 1 period |
| Price against its long-term growth line | moderate | strong | strong | +154%worst +119%, 1 period | −29%best +63%, 2 periods |
| Bitcoin's value against everything miners have been paid | weak | strong | strong | never there | −29%best +207%, 3 periods |
| Price against what holders paid | none | moderate | moderate | +93%worst −27%, 3 periods | −27%best +43%, 2 periods |
| Price against its 2-year average | none | strong | moderate | +90%worst +12%, 2 periods | −68%best +49%, 2 periods |
| Miners' daily income against its yearly average | weak | strong | none | +95%worst +12%, 3 periods | −23%best +177%, 2 periods |
| Price against its 200-day average | none | weak | weak, the wrong way round | +47%worst −40%, 6 periods | −33%best +43%, 3 periods |
How to read the table
- Link: how closely a high reading went with a poor following 12 months, and a low reading with a good one, in words: none, weak, moderate or strong. "The wrong way round" means a high reading was followed by a better year, not a worse one.
- Three stretches, because a link that holds in only one of them is luck. The first three measures held in all three; the 200-day average did not hold in any.
- After its cheapest and dearest tenth: the middle result of the next 12 months, with the worst or best case and the number of separate periods behind it. One or two periods is one or two market cycles, not a rule.
- What these do not do: time a purchase. We tested them as switches for our own strategy’s entries and exits, and none improved it. The following 12 months is a long time, and prices fell a long way inside several of the good ones.
Worked out from Bitcoin’s daily closing prices since 18 Jul 2010 and its fixed release schedule. Miner income counts the new coins released each day at that day’s price, with fees left out. What holders paid: source Coin Metrics. The link is a rank correlation on weekly readings. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Not advice and not a forecast.