A sweeping cryptocurrency market-structure bill faces long odds of becoming law this year despite mounting pressure from President Donald Trump and federal regulators ahead of a pivotal Senate procedural vote, according to traders on prediction market platforms.
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, or CLARITY Act, is scheduled for a procedural vote Sept. 15. Advancing the measure would require 60 votes, meaning Republicans would need support from some Democrats or independents.
The House approved the bill 294-134 in July 2025. The Senate Banking Committee advanced an updated version 15-9 in May, but lawmakers remain divided over government ethics rules, stablecoin rewards, and the division of regulatory authority.
The legislation would establish a federal framework for digital assets and clarify responsibilities between the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The agencies oversee different parts of the financial system, and the legislation seeks to resolve uncertainty over whether certain digital assets should be regulated as securities or commodities.
Prediction markets reflect skepticism. Kalshi traders put the probability of enactment before April 1, 2027, at 44% and the chance of becoming law by the end of the year at less than 25%. Polymarket gives the bill a 15% chance of becoming law by the end of 2026.
Trump renewed pressure on lawmakers after hosting cryptocurrency executives and regulators at the White House last week, calling for Congress to pass "a fair version of the Clarity Act."
SEC Chair Paul Atkins said legislation remains essential and pledged that the agency would support Congress in sending the measure to Trump.
CFTC Chair Michael Selig warned that his agency could act independently if Congress does not.
"The CFTC will utilize its existing authorities to begin establishing a regime for crypto asset markets. We owe it to the American people to do so," he said.