Kalshi traders see low likelihood of major crypto bill becoming law this year

Kalshi traders see low likelihood of major crypto bill becoming law this year

U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks accompanied by Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Paul Atkins, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Michael Selig, Crypto advisor Patrick Witt and trade association officials and representatives from companies such as Coinbase, Ripple, Andreessen Horowitz, and Nasdaq, in the Roosevelt Room at the White House in Washington D.C., U.S., Aug. 19, 2026.

A major piece of legislation that will establish a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies is unlikely to become a law by year end, Kalshi traders speculate.

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which was passed with bipartisan support in the House in July 2025, is set for a procedural vote in the Senate on Sept. 15.

The White House has been turning up the heat on lawmakers to push the legislation through, with President Donald Trump calling for Congress to pass "a fair version of the Clarity Act" just last week.

The Clarity Act would spell out a regulatory framework for digital commodities. The Securities and Exchange Commission oversees securities, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission handles derivatives, including futures and prediction markets. Both agencies have issued guidance on crypto assets but there are no explicit boundaries on which agency tackles what.

Even as bitcoin has surged more than 20% in the past week, propelled by Trump's push for the Clarity Act, Kalshi traders see a less than 25% chance that the measure will become a law by the end of the year.

They see less than 50% odds that it can be implemented by April 2027.

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