KBW said Monday that the selloff in bitcoin miner stocks since June primarily removed the value assigned to future AI/HPC leases rather than repricing completed projects at higher cap rates. The bank downgraded Core Scientific (NASDAQ: CORZ) to Market Perform while remaining selective across its miner coverage.
Leasing activity recovered from 95 MW in the first quarter to 1.19 GW in the second quarter, according to KBW analyst Stephen Glagola. Another 928 MW had been announced in the third quarter through July 27, bringing the year-to-date total to 2.21 GW.
Applied Digital (NASDAQ: APLD) led the leasing group. Hut 8 (NASDAQ: HUT) and TeraWulf (NASDAQ: WULF) joined it, with the three miners accounting for 87% of capacity signed this year.
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All miners covered by KBW reached year-to-date highs in June, then declined by an average of 32% through the close on July 24. Glagola said investor conversations and KBW's valuation analysis indicated that expectations for unsigned leases had fallen more than valuations for contracted capacity.
"Our analysis suggests the selloff from June-highs mostly de-rated pipelines rather than cap rates," Glagola said.
KBW held its valuation assumptions at roughly $17 million of equity creation per megawatt, a 6.7% cap rate, a 17% trended yield on cost and about $11 million of capital spending per megawatt. Under those assumptions, current share prices reflected approximately 1.7 GW of future leases.
The portion of visible miner capacity priced in after interconnection approval slid from roughly 80% at the June peak to 41% by Monday. Implied pipeline value was down 23% for Riot Platforms (NASDAQ: RIOT) and 73% for HIVE Digital (NASDAQ: HIVE), while it fell to zero for both Hut 8 and TeraWulf.
Hut 8 and TeraWulf had recently completed major signings, leaving investors with less willingness to price additional deals. "The market now pays only for pipeline closest to converting and gives little/no forward credit to recent signers," Glagola said.
The remaining 1.7 GW of implied future leases was concentrated in CIFR, CORZ, KEEL and RIOT, which represented 84% of the pipeline still reflected in valuations. KBW said this left CleanSpark (NASDAQ: CLSK) as one of the least expensive stocks on its next potential deal. Hut 8 and TeraWulf also fell into that category.
KBW said tenant demand remained supportive even as disclosure around counterparties became more limited. AWS, Nvidia and Anthropic were among the tenants active in miner leasing during 2026, according to the note.