The crypto industry finally has the market structure bill it has spent years demanding. It still may not have the votes.
Senate Republicans unveiled their latest version of the CLARITY Act this week, following months of negotiations, lobbying and pressure from an industry eager to replace regulatory uncertainty with a durable set of rules. But despite that progress, prediction markets remain deeply skeptical that the landmark legislation will become law this year.
As of Friday, traders on Polymarket were pricing the bill's chances of passage at roughly 37% — a partial recovery from the record-low 32% reached a week earlier, but still well below the 75% chance earlier in the year.
Alex Tapscott, CEO of CMCC Global Capital Markets, believes even the more optimistic estimates that some have put at a 50-50 coin flip may be overstating the bill's chances.
"Personally, I think that's wildly optimistic," Tapscott told Coinage during an interview at the Out East Summit this week.
The problem is no longer simply producing a workable crypto bill. The House has already approved its version, and the Senate Banking Committee advanced market structure legislation with bipartisan support earlier this year. The remaining challenge is assembling the 60 votes needed on the Senate floor before lawmakers run out of time.
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The latest Senate draft would clarify the respective roles of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission, establish rules for digital asset intermediaries and decentralized finance, and create a lighter fundraising framework for some token issuers. It would also specify that putting a traditional security on a blockchain does not exempt it from existing securities laws.
But Republicans still need at least eight Democratic votes to advance the legislation, and negotiations have become increasingly consumed by an ethics provisions governing crypto activity by elected officials.
The current draft would prevent certain political figures, including the president and vice president, from issuing or sponsoring digital assets until 2029. Democrats have argued that the restrictions contain loopholes and rely too heavily on enforcement by the Justice Department, while the bill would prevent state attorneys general from bringing their own cases.
For Tapscott, however, the market may be underestimating what passage would mean precisely because investors have become doubtful it will happen.