JPMorgan has slashed its price target on Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ: COIN) to $196 from $283.
This is nearly a 31% cut, while maintaining an "Overweight" rating on the largest U.S. crypto exchange.
The revision, led by analyst Kenneth Worthington, still implies roughly 24% upside from the stock's recent levels near $158.60. Coinbase shares were down 1.18% intraday at press time.
JPMorgan isn't alone in tempering expectations. Compass Point reiterated a "Sell" rating with a far lower $140 target.
The target implies roughly 12% downside from the stock's price.
Compass Point expects the Senate to vote on the Clarity Act before Coinbase reports second-quarter results on July 30, and views the legislative outcome as a more significant driver for the stock than earnings. The bill would establish a regulatory framework for digital assets in the U.S., splitting oversight between the SEC and CFTC.
That makes the setup binary. Compass Point stated the bull case depends on passage of the Clarity Act, leaving limited support for the stock if the bill fails in the Senate this month.
On prediction markets, Compass Point projects $50 million in second-quarter revenue, a $200 million annualized run rate, but only $25 million in gross profit. Compass Point noted that Coinbase double-counts revenue relative to competitors in the segment.
The analysts also flagged the risk that perpetual futures could cannibalize Coinbase's spot trading revenue in the second half of 2026, as competition intensifies and take rates decline. The firm has previously warned that low switching costs limit Coinbase's pricing power in perps, particularly among sophisticated traders
• U.S. government moves $8.8M of Bitcoin that Trump said would never sell
Coinbase is navigating internal changes. Base creator Jesse Pollak said on July 15 he is stepping back from leading the Base app after admitting his bet on onchain social applications failed.
He is handing the app to Coinbase under investor Jordan "Cobie" Fish while Base pivots toward trading, payments, and AI agents.
This story was originally published by TheStreet on Jul 17, 2026, where it first appeared in the MARKETS section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.