Prediction markets have exploded in popularity, with social media flooded by videos of traders seemingly turning small bets into massive paydays. College student George Makihara appeared to be one of them. In January, he posted a video showing himself winning $100,000 on a bet that President Donald Trump would say "McDonald's" publicly that month. Other creators touted similar success stories, describing prediction market trades as "free money."
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• Millionaires under 43 hold only 25% of their wealth in stocks. Here's where their money is actually going But a Wall Street Journal investigation (1) found that many of those viral stories may not have been real. After reviewing more than 1,100 videos, the newspaper reported that some creators promoting Polymarket allegedly used simulated versions of the platform to create the appearance of large profits and attract new users. The Journal identified several websites that looked nearly identical to Polymarket, including one password-protected site that used a misspelled version of the company's web address. Makihara, who declined to comment to the outlet, was among dozens of college-aged creators the Journal says were paid to film themselves placing trades and showing off their earnings. The Journal found that about 70% of the videos showed creators appearing to place bets on Polymarket, a platform where cryptocurrency is used to wager on the outcome of future events. These wagers can be on everything from election outcomes and sports championships to economic reports and world news. The investigation, however, found that many trades — worth a combined $1.9 million — did not appear genuine. Creators allegedly reacted to old video clips or fabricated headlines to make it seem they had won money. For example, Makihara was shown reacting enthusiastically to a clip of Trump saying the world "McDonald's" — a clip the Journal says was two months old (they also note that Trump never said the word publicly in January and that the 50 actual bets on the platform that made this prediction lost). The investigation found that 118 videos showed creators celebrating nearly $900,000 in apparent winnings, even though those same bets would have actually lost more than $166,000.