Bitcoin has struggled through 2026, plunging to half its October peak and sparking fears of an imminent bitcoin collapse.
Sign up now for —A free crypto newsletter that will get you ahead of the market
The bitcoin price is currently falling back toward $60,000 per bitcoin as traders brace for an Elon Musk game-changer.
Now, as Wall Street quietly gears up for what could be a crypto market earthquake, analysts with JPMorgan have predicted bitcoin miners could be forced to sell more bitcoin.
Sign up now for the free —A daily five-minute newsletter for traders, investors and the crypto-curious that will get you up to date and keep you ahead of the bitcoin price and crypto market swings
Bitcoin mining economics have "worsened" this year, the bank’s researchers, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, said in a note seen by The Block, estimating the current production cost of bitcoin is about $78,000 per bitcoin—a 25% premium on bitcoin’s $64,000 current price.
Publicly traded bitcoin miners, which use powerful computers to secure the bitcoin network in exchange for new bitcoin, sold more than 32,000 bitcoin worth just over $2 billion during the first quarter of 2026 to fund operating expenses, topping their combined sales for all of last year, the analysts said, pointing to data from TheEnergyMag.
“When bitcoin trades below its production cost, higher-cost miners power down, the hashrate declines, and difficulty adjusts lower,” JPMorgan analysts said.
“This pattern was evident in the second week of June, when difficulty fell 10%, the second drawdown of that magnitude so far this year (the previous drawdown took place last January)."
However, bitcoin miners could be quietly signalling bitcoin’s cycle bottom is close, according to newsletter author Lark Davis.
Sign up now for —A free crypto newsletter that will get you ahead of the market
“If miners aren’t making money, then many resort to selling bitcoin to pay the bills,” Davis wrote in an emailed note, pointing to bitcoin’s Puell Multiple that’s showing “miners aren’t making money. And historically, it’s this miner selling—or capitulation—that often signals bitcoin’s cycle price bottoms."
While the Puell Multiple hasn’t quite signalled miner capitulation yet, “that doesn’t necessarily mean that the low hasn’t printed yet. We’ll find out within the next few months if we got a lower low this cycle below $59,000. But the Puell Multiple is right now signalling miner distress, and that signals the beginning of the end of this bear market,” Davis wrote.
Meanwhile, bitcoin’s closely-watched fear and greed index, which dropped to a record low earlier this year, has been stuck in the “extreme fear” zone for months.
“Bitcoin is holding firm around the $65,000 level, but from here it could easily break in either direction,” Koinly chief executive Robin Singh said in emailed comments, pointing to the possibility that movement on the stalled crypto market structure bill known as the Clarity Act could help the bitcoin price recover.
“The expected passage of the Clarity Act within the next two weeks could provide the fundamental catalyst needed to push bitcoin back into the $70,000 range. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if any move higher proves short-lived, given the broader market still looks bearish.”