CME Group's FedWatch tool shows a 100% probability of a hold at 3.50% to 3.75% on April 29, leaving Powell's press conference as the primary focus for risk assets.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell to levels below $76,000, while the broader market capitalization slid 1.8% to $2.62 trillion, representing losses nearing $40 billion in the last 24 hours.
The pullback fits a pattern where Bitcoin and altcoins drift lower in the 24 hours before each Fed decision. Ether (ETH) lost almost 2%, XRP fell 2.2%, and BNB slipped 0.7%, per CoinGecko data.
The retreat tracks reduced positioning in leveraged perpetuals and an uptick in exchange inflows, both common signs of risk reduction before macro events.
Headline inflation near 3.3% to 3.5%, driven by oil pressure from the Iran and Middle East conflict, has weakened the case for near-term cuts and reinforced the hawkish-hold expectation in CME Group's data.
This is widely viewed as Powell's last appearance as Fed Chair before Kevin Warsh takes over in mid-May. CME data extends the hold forward, with a 100% probability of no change in tomorrow's FOMC interest rate decision.
Treasury yields ticked higher, with the 10-year near 4.33% to 4.36%, while the dollar held firm on safe-haven flows. Volatility is expected to spike during Powell's afternoon press conference.
What the next 24 hours could reveal is whether Powell signals openness to later cuts or doubles down on inflation vigilance, a tone that has historically shaped the following month of crypto positioning.
Read the Original story Crypto Markets Shed $40 Billion in De-Risking Ahead of Powell’s Final FOMC Decision by Lockridge Okoth at beincrypto.com