Crypto asset manager Bitwise says that Circle (NYSE: $CRCL), issuer of USDC (CRYPTO: $USDC), could be worth roughly $75 billion by 2030, as stablecoin adoption and interest-driven revenue continue to scale.
According to a weekly Bitwise CIO memo published on Wednesday by Matt Hougan, the estimate assumes the stablecoin market will grow to $1.9 trillion by 2030, with Circle maintaining its current 25% market share.
Hougan says Circle’s business model is driven by interest earned on reserves backing USDC, with current yields tied to U.S. Treasury rates. While headline yields are around 4%, distribution agreements reduce the firm’s effective take rate to roughly 1.6%.
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The Bitwise CIO beleives the take rate could compress even further to 0.8% over time as competition increases, while supply expands, resulting in an estimated $3.8 billion in annual revenue by 2030.
Circle currently holds roughly a quarter of the global stablecoin market, trailing Tether's USDT (CRYPTO: $USDT), while maintaining a stronger position in regulated markets, which Bitwise said could become more important as institutional adoption grows.
“Stablecoins have exploded in popularity because they let people move money anywhere in the world efficiently and reliably,” CIO Matt Hougan stated.
Circle generates revenue primarily from reserve yield, sharing a portion of that income with partners like Coinbase (NASDAQ: $COIN) to drive distribution and liquidity.
The stablecoin's valuation remains closely tied to macro conditions, particularly interest rates, which directly impact earnings from reserve assets.
Circle’s stock saw a big drop this week following a revised draft of the proposed CLARITY Act, which raised concerns around limits on passing interest income to users.
Bitwise said investor reaction may be overstated, pointing to long-term growth in stablecoins.
Shares of Circle are trading at 98.27, down 5.38% today.