Bitcoin‘s price will buck the geopolitical turmoil brought about by the US and Israel’s war with Iran and more than double by the end of the year to hit an all-time high of $150,000.
That’s the case Bernstein analysts made in a March 24 investor’s note shared with DL News. The research and brokerage firm said that the top cryptocurrency’s relative strength versus other assets, coupled with a strong base of long-term holders which includes Michael Saylor’s Strategy, is fuelling its conviction in a blow-out rally in the coming months.
“We believe Bitcoin has found its trough and is now heading higher,” the analysts said in the note. “We retain $150,000 as our 2026 year-end expected price for Bitcoin.”
Bernstein’s renewed conviction comes as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and its impact on the global economy plagues financial markets.
The price of oil is roughly 30% higher than before the US and Israel first struck Iran on February 28, fuelling inflation concerns among financial analysts and central banks.
Gold, typically viewed as a store of value in times of uncertainty, has fallen over 17% from its pre-war price. US stocks have also taken a broad beating.
Yet amid the chaos, Bitcoin has fared better than most other assets. It’s up almost 8% since the conflict began.
Bernstein has listed three reasons for its bullish outlook.
Firstly, Michael Saylor’s Strategy keeps buying. According to Bernstein’s forecasts, the treasury firm has plenty of room to continue scooping up Bitcoin, and shows no signs of slowing.
That’s despite widespread chaos among other Bitcoin treasury firms, and shorts piling into Strategy as they attempt to profit from Bitcoin’s falling price, and the firm’s exposure to it.
Secondly, investors are continuing to buy Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
Bitcoin ETFs have added $2.2 billion over the last four weeks, and have seen more long-term allocations from wealth managers and institutional funds, including pension and sovereign funds, the Bernstein analysts said.
Finally, existing long-term Bitcoin holders haven’t sold, despite a near 50% drawdown from the asset’s October all-time high.
“Bitcoin holders inactive for more than one year stand at 60% of total supply,” the Bernstein analysts said.
“This ownership structure is unique to Bitcoin signifying long term ‘believers’ who remain insensitive to Bitcoin volatility holding Bitcoin as a ‘store of value.’”
Bernstein has a history of making bullish Bitcoin price predictions, but has yet to see one of them come through.