Ethereum’s price is once again at the center of bold market predictions, with Fundstrat’s Tom Lee arguing that the latest downturn may mark the end of the crypto winter rather than the start of a deeper collapse.
After a volatile period that saw Ethereum pull back sharply, Lee believes the market is now at — or very near — a cyclical bottom.
His latest outlook draws on technical analogies, on-chain data, and long-term performance trends.
But given that he previously called a bottom incorrectly, investors are left weighing whether this is a turning point — or another premature signal.
Lee’s current thesis is that Ethereum is either at its bottom or in the final phase of forming one.
He builds this argument on three key factors:
Lee points to analysis from “legendary market timer” Tom DeMark, who sees a resemblance between Ethereum’s recent price action and major S&P 500 drawdowns in:
According to DeMark, Ethereum is showing a 93% correlation to those historical patterns.
• If the 1987 analogue holds, ETH likely bottomed around March 7.
• If the 2011 analogue holds, ETH is bottoming now.
Lee interprets this as strong evidence that the worst of the decline is already behind us.
Lee also uses realized price — the average on-chain purchase price of ETH — to gauge market stress.
• ETH is currently trading at about a 22% discount
This places the current market almost exactly in line with prior turning points, suggesting that investors are already deeply underwater — a typical late-stage bear market signal.
Lee also framed Ethereum’s potential upside relative to Bitcoin, arguing that a major rally in the world’s largest crypto could significantly lift ETH valuations.
He added that in a more bullish scenario — where Ethereum is increasingly viewed as a core payments infrastructure — prices could climb as high as $62,000.